December 2019

We expect global growth to rebound in 2020, the US consumer to remain strong, and the Federal Reserve not to raise rates before the 2020 elections. The S&P 500 is likely to finish the year with a gain of at least 20%. Historically, these strong annual gains have been followed by better than average returns in the following year. Read More

October 2019

Our review of asset class performance shows continued leadership of US stocks over international, strength in “defensive” asset classes and sectors, and more weakness in the stocks of small companies. Through three quarters, the market has had its best performance in 22 years. Read More

September 2019

Despite the uncertainty we’ve witnessed, the macrocast score is not deteriorating. The model continues to suggest a low probability of recession and/or a major bear market in the near term. Read More

August 2019

The latest macrocast score remains at a level that suggests a low risk of both a recession and major bear market. Every August, we “Chart the Course” by looking at key charts focused on the most important trends in the economy and markets. Read More

July 2019

macrocast continues to indicate a low probability of a sustained, recessionary bear market. The biggest weakness within macrocast is in the valuation category. After a near 20% rally over the past 6 months, all signals within the category are neutral or negative. Other VITALS were mixed to positive. Read More

June 2019

The Federal Reserve is expected to signal a willingness to cut interest rates. Although recent US economic data has been mostly positive, the Fed might be concerned about the direction of the global economy, and recent manufacturing survey data that shows a more problematic outlook. Read More

May 2019

The macrocast score continues to suggest low risk of both a recession and major bear market. After a big rally since Christmas and a new all-time high, the market is in a mild correction. This price action is normal, and often resolves higher in the year ahead. Read More

April 2019

The rebound in the macrocast score is led by improvements in our Technical indicators, while the Valuation category is a headwind. It was a big quarter for all major asset classes. A rebound in risk appetite combined with a less aggressive Fed led to both higher stock and bond returns. Read More

March 2019

macrocast indicates major bear market risk remains low. The yield curve has inverted, and historically, that has been a negative for the economy. However, we believe recent Fed commentary and negative German bond yields are the driving forces behind it. Read More

February 2019

While the risks of a recessionary bear market are rising, they are increasing from a very low probability point. The Fed’s recent comments suggest they’ve gotten the message from the market and economy. At this point, we do not expect any rate hikes for at least the first half of the year, and maybe not at all for 2019. Read More

January 2019

The market remains volatile, but macrocast continues to indicate a low probability of a sustained, recessionary bear market. Weakness in macrocast is primarily coming from our Technical indicators, as well as some deterioration in our Aggregate Economy indicators. Read More