August 2025

Every August, we “Chart the Course” with a series of charts that highlight key current and historical trends in the economy and markets. We hope you find them both insightful and useful. Our regular commentary will resume in September.

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July 2025

The newly signed tax bill passed by Congress and the President the first week of July delivers front-loaded stimulus aimed at boosting near-term growth while cushioning tariff impacts. Despite longer-term deficit concerns, it’s a net positive for the economy in the short run.

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June 2025

Geopolitical tensions flared last week as Israel and Iran exchanged strikes, sparking a swift market response—stocks dipped and oil surged. While the headlines are serious, historical context and energy dynamics suggest a short-term shock, not a lasting shift.

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May 2025

The temporary U.S.–China tariff suspension is a clear step forward, lowering effective tariff rates to more manageable levels. But uncertainty remains, especially for small businesses and the direction of future negotiations. Sentiment-based “soft” data continues to fall sharply, while hard economic indicators remain resilient.

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April 2025

While we typically use April Musings to recap the first quarter, the events since March 31 have been too significant to ignore—most notably, the newly implemented tariffs and their potential ripple effects on the economy and markets.

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March 2025

Investors anticipated tax cuts and deregulation after the election but overlooked the full impact of tariffs, which are now unsettling business planning and sentiment. While uncertainty can slow economic growth, history shows that geopolitical events rarely cause recessions—thus the risk of a major bear market is low.

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February 2025

Trade tensions have escalated significantly with new US tariffs imposed on imports from Canada, China, and potentially, the EU. While the longer-term impact is uncertain, the administration’s goals appear to be increasing tariff revenue and reducing the trade deficit. Despite some concerns from companies, the broader economic effect will likely be limited if US economic growth remains strong.

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January 2025

The U.S. economy led global growth in 2024, fueled by a strong labor market, easing inflation, and resilient consumer finances. These key factors underscore continued growth and support an optimistic economic outlook for the year ahead.

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