December 2020

Economic growth should rebound in 2021 thanks to a red-hot housing market and strength in the financial positioning of households, which are in much better shape than they were after the last recession. Read More

October 2020

In this issue, we are introducing our microcast™ risk model as a complement to macrocast^™. The microcast™ model takes a shorter-term focus, looking for weakness in market internals, while macrocast^™ takes a more holistic view, aimed at identifying recessionary bear markets. Read More

September 2020

Whenever a major election nears, concerns grow among investors about what the results could mean for the economy and stock market. History shows that there are no meaningful differences in market performance. Average returns tend to be positive regardless of which party occupies the White House and controls Congress. Read More

August 2020

Every August, we “Chart the Course” by looking at key charts illustrating important trends in the economy and markets. We find that the data shown in many of these charts is consistent with what we see in macrocast^™. Read More

July 2020

Improvement in the economic indicators is the primary driver pushing macrocast^™ back into positive territory. While on an absolute basis the data remains mostly negative, it has improved substantially relative to the lows of April and May. Read More

June 2020

After grinding to a halt in March and April, economic indicators rebounded in May. The economy is still deeply negative but appears to be heading in the right direction. The Federal Reserve indicated that they will not raise rates any time soon and will do everything in their power to keep credit markets from freezing up. Read More

May 2020

We are getting more economic data from the COVID-19 fallout, and it is as lousy as expected. We expect GDP data for the second quarter to be the worst on record. The Federal Reserve responded to the crisis faster and more aggressively than any time in history. Read More

April 2020

The negative score in macrocast^™ is driven by the Technical and Aggregate Economic categories. Our indicators in the Liquidity, Inflation, and Sentiment categories remain mostly positive. Q1 was disastrous for almost all asset classes. US equities had one of their worst quarters ever… Read More

March 2020

The stock market saw its fastest decline from an all-time high to a 20% decline. The impact on the economy has been immediate, with a collapse in travel and leisure-related activity, and a spike in initial claims for unemployment that is only expected to get worse. Read More

February 2020

The market’s resilience in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak may come as a surprise to many. But China’s reaction in providing monetary stimulus, combined with the stock market’s tendency to disregard previous outbreaks, suggests the response is not unusual at all. Read More

January 2020

The positive macrocast^™ score is being driven by strength in the Aggregate Economy indicators. The negatives are almost exclusively in the Valuation category. While 2018 saw muted returns across the board, 2019 will go down as the year that everything worked. Read More