December 2024
Consumer balance sheets remain healthy, with manageable debt levels and ample room for further spending to support economic growth. Coupled with a relatively young economic cycle, this suggests continued room for expansion in 2025.
November 2024
The Fed cut rates again as it seeks to deliver a “soft landing”, balancing inflation and economic growth. Historically, easing monetary policy amid market highs has been a bullish signal, with stocks averaging 15% gains in past instances. Looking ahead, the Fed projects a median Fed funds rate of 3.4% by the end of 2025, suggesting a gradual pace of rate reductions over the next year.
October 2024
In Q3, most asset classes, including stocks and bonds, saw strong gains, driven by expectations of lower interest rates and diminishing recession risks. Notable trends included a rebound in small-cap stocks, a boost for international markets due to a weaker dollar, and the best quarter for bonds this year. Meanwhile, commodities lagged due to declining oil prices.
September 2024
The Federal Reserve is set to begin a rate cutting cycle on September 18th. An initial 0.25%-0.50% cut is expected, the first of several over the next year as their attention moves from inflation to a slowdown in employment growth.
August 2024
Every August, we “Chart the Course” by reviewing a series of charts illustrating the important trends in the economy and markets. We will resume publication of our regular commentary in September.
July 2024
US large-cap stocks—led by Big Tech—drove the market higher in the first half, with the S&P 500 returning over 15%. However, the average stock underperformed. The Equal Weighted S&P 500 fell by 2.63% in Q2 while small-cap stocks lagged significantly, widening the gap with large caps. Bonds ended the quarter positively but remain below their peak, continuing to drag on asset allocation portfolios.
June 2024
Despite unprecedented global challenges over the past four years, markets have proven resilient, driven largely by US innovation. While ongoing issues like elevated interest rates and uncertainty in monetary policy persist, the market’s ability to reach record highs in the face of recent turmoil suggests it may continue to defy expectations and weather these challenges.
May 2024
Worries about “stagflation” have recently resurfaced due to slower economic growth, but the data suggests these concerns may be overblown. While inflation remains a challenge, it’s trending downwards, and underlying economic activity appears more robust than headline GDP figures indicate.
April 2024
The recent geopolitical incident between Israel and Iran has raised concerns about a broadening conflict and its impact on global oil prices and the potential economic consequences. Despite current stability in oil prices, as the situation develops, we remain vigilant and ready to adjust our investment strategies as necessary. Read More
March 2024
The global economy is showing signs of improvement, primarily led by the United States. Europe, on the other hand, may be heading toward a recession based on declining GDP estimates. China is taking proactive measures to stimulate its economy and prevent a slowdown. Read More
February 2024
While rate reductions are likely in 2024, the Federal Reserve is pushing back on the market’s expectations for their timing and intensity. Investors originally expected numerous aggressive cuts but are now adapting to the Fed’s more measured outlook. Read More
January 2024
Despite widespread recession fears, the 2023 economy surprised forecasters with positive growth. A resilient job market and strong consumer spending helped the economy defy expectations. Stocks and bonds rebounded in 2023—thanks to a strong economy, the end of Fed rate hikes, and outperformance from Big Tech. Most of the gains occurred in the last two months, after the Federal Reserve signaled rate cuts were coming in 2024. Read More
