December 2018

The market remains volatile, but macrocast^™ continues to indicate a low probability of a recessionary bear market. Leading indicators reached another cycle high last month. In the past, the LEI peaked at least 10 months before the onset of a recession. Other areas of strength are in job growth and retail sales. Read More

October 2018

Despite the recent bout of market volatility, macrocast^™ continues to indicate a low probability of a recessionary bear market. The recent market decline is neither large nor unusual, even for a strong bull market. Historically, the market averages more than three declines of 5% or more each year. Read More

September 2018

There is nothing from macrocast^™ that is suggesting that a major bear market is on the horizon. The Fed raised rates by 0.25% on Wednesday. Contrary to market myths, stocks have been mostly positive during rate-hike cycles. The mid-term elections are just weeks away. Historically, the next several months… Read More

August 2018

macrocast^™ remains constructive. Risk assets remain favorable. Every August, we “Chart the Course” by looking at key charts focused on the most important trends in the economy and markets. We find that the data in many of the following charts is consistent with what we see in MACROCAST^™. Read More

July 2018

macrocast^™ is Corbett Road’s in-house model that measures the attractiveness of risky assets by looking at the VITALS of the market–Valuation, Inflation, Technical Analysis, Aggregate Economy, Liquidity, and Sentiment. We use our model to assess the chance of major, protracted bear markets vs. the more common or “normal” corrections (typically 5-15%). Read More

June 2018

The positive data from macrocast^™ surged higher in June. Retail sales reached a new all-time high in May, and initial claims for unemployment remain at historic lows. Concerns remain. The prospect of an escalating trade war would likely be a negative for the US economy. Slower growth in the economy could leak to the stock market. Read More

May 2018

The data from macrocast^™ remains positive and continues to suggest risk of a major bear market is low. The market appears to be in consolidation mode. The S&P 500 is currently about halfway between its high and low for the year. This is not an unusual pattern; historically the market can lack trend for several months before decisively… Read More

April 2018

macrocast^™ was positive throughout 2017, the sixth consecutive year the score did not drop below zero. macrocast^™ is Corbett Road’s in-house model that measures the attractiveness of risky assets by looking at the VITALS of the market—Valuation, Inflation, Technical Analysis, Aggregate Economy… Read More

March 2018

macrocast^™ continues to suggest risk of a major bear market is low. The latest economic data from employment, housing, and retail sales point to a constructive outlook. Recession is unlikely in the next 12 months. As expected, the Fed raised interest rates yesterday. Their overall outlook was little changed, suggesting… Read More

February 2018

On January 26th, the S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 2872. The market then proceeded to lose 10% over the next 9 trading days. It was the first 10% decline since early 2016, and the fastest decline from an all-time high in market history. It was arguably the pace of the decline and not the amount of the decline that caught many…Read More

January 2018

macrocast^™ was positive throughout 2017, marking the sixth consecutive year the score did not drop below zero. macrocast^™ is Corbett Road’s in-house model that measures the attractiveness of risky assets by looking at the VITALS of the market–Valuation, Inflation, Technical Analysis, Aggregate Economy, Liquidity, and Sentiment. Read More