December 2021

Heading into the new year, macrocast™ indicates a low probability of a sustained, recessionary bear market. Our current microcast™ signal is suggesting an aggressive allocation. Both models are decisively positive, underpinning a positive market outlook going into 2022. Read More

October 2021

Asset class performance diverged a bit in Q3, with few stock indices performing well. US large-cap stocks led the way, while mid- and small-caps posted negative returns. Emerging markets performed poorly, bonds were mostly unchanged, and commodities surged higher. Read More

September 2021

Job openings are at all-time highs, yet unemployment remains elevated. This conundrum is due to pandemic dislocations and government policy. We believe that these factors have either resolved or will do so in the coming months, leading to continued job growth. Read More

August 2021

Job openings are at all-time highs. While the labor market continues to recover, it remains below peak employment levels seen in February 2020. There are several reasons for this, but a lack of available jobs is not one of them, with over 10 million openings reported in the latest survey. This bodes well for continued job growth as we move beyond the pandemic and its effects. Read More

July 2021

Most asset classes continued to perform well in the second quarter. Equity markets around the globe and across market caps again saw positive returns and the majority are up double digits year to date. Bonds also rebounded in Q2. Read More

June 2021

Economic growth should remain robust for the rest of 2021, albeit at a slower pace. Constraints in both the housing market and auto industry may negatively impact GDP, but these issues should prove temporary and lead to a rebound in 2022, helping extend the recovery. Read More

May 2021

While higher inflation was anticipated, the latest print came in even higher than expected. However, digging deeper into the numbers suggests unique conditions accounted for most of the increase. Read More

April 2021

The majority of asset classes performed well in the first quarter. Equities around the globe and across market caps saw positive returns. The notable laggard was bonds. The Barclays Aggregate Bond index suffered its worst quarter since 1981. Read More

March 2021

Inflation worries have been in the news lately, with some economists suggesting that the fiscal rescue package, mass vaccinations, and supply constraints will lead to a significant rise in prices. We share the Federal Reserve’s view that any spike in inflation will be temporary. Read More

February 2021

The latest economic data continues to exceed expectations. The most recent numbers on auto sales, building permits, and retail sales remain robust as the economic recovery progresses. Read More

January 2021

At the end of the first quarter last year, there were bear markets across the globe. By the end of 2020, nearly all equity markets had rebounded, finishing positive on the year. It was a remarkable turnaround, and the S&P 500 saw one of the strongest rallies of all time after the fastest drop in history. Read More