May 2023

As expected, the Federal Reserve raised the target interest rate by 0.25% earlier this month, marking what could be the end of this cycle’s rate hikes. Should this prove to be the case, it would be the quickest rate-hike cycle in the past four decades.  Read More

April 2023

Major asset classes enjoyed a strong start to the year, a reversal of the way 2022 began. Equities around the globe and across market caps saw mostly positive returns. Bonds also performed well, with the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond index posting its best return since Spring 2020.  Read More

March 2023

The banks that have failed over the past week were among the riskiest financial institutions, given their outsized exposure to clientele in the tech industry. Still, the collapse of these banks highlights the consequences of the Fed’s rapid shift in monetary policy. Following a multi-year period of zero interest rate policy, the Fed has increased interest rates at a historic pace to bring down inflation. The speed of this tightening and the sharp draining of liquidity creates stress on the financial system. Read More

February 2023

The macrocast™ score suggests the probability of a recessionary bear market remains elevated, while the positioning of microcast™ reflects the improvement in technical indicators seen during the last market rally. A closer look at both risk models reveals the current dichotomy in market data—a conflict between weakening fundamental economic indicators and the constructive price action exhibited by major equity indices.  Read More

January 2023

Markets faced several headwinds in 2022, including high inflation, historic tightening by central banks, and the Ukrainian war. Inflation was a driving factor in the markets throughout the year, with the headline consumer price index reaching a 40-year high of 9.1% in June. Read More