August 2022
Every August, we “Chart the Course” by reviewing a series of charts that illustrate key trends in the economy and markets. The data depicted in these charts is consistent with what we see in macrocast™. Read More
July 2022
Most major asset classes saw negative returns in the second quarter. Equity markets around the globe were down double digits, and bonds continued their sell off from the first quarter. Read More
June 2022
In a follow-up to our most recent podcast, we highlight every major bear market since the Great Depression. Historically, once a bear market ended, returns over the following 1-, 3-, and 5-year periods were all positive, and often, well above average. Read More
May 2022
As expected, the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by 50 bps (.50%). This was the largest single rate hike since 2000. Looking ahead, they signaled for another 50 bp increase in June and July, and Chairman Powell said further rate hikes, starting in September, would depend on the path of economic growth and inflation. Read More
April 2022
Most asset classes performed poorly in the first quarter. Equities around the globe and across market caps saw mostly negative returns, except for those with significant commodity exposure. In a repeat of the first quarter of 2021, the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond index suffered another major negative quarter. Read More
March 2022
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018. It was the first of what is expected to be several rate hikes in 2022, as the central bank looks to tamp down inflation while maintaining the strong job market. Chairman Jerome Powell has shifted to a more aggressive tone and is signaling the Fed will no longer wait for inflation to improve on its own. Read More
February 2022
Three issues that have been a hindrance to the market should start improving over the next few months. Inflation concerns, uncertainty about the aggressiveness of Fed tightening, and geopolitical tensions should all be nearing peak levels. Read More
January 2022
The market has started the year with a correction, the first since 2020. An increase in volatility was expected coming into the year, given the large gains and lower volatility last year. When viewed from a historical lens, the recent pullback is unsurprising, but typically, sustained, bear market declines are uncommon absent an economic recession. Read More